[PDF] Dan M. Kammen

[PDF] This report documents a scenario analysis exploring the role of advanced technology in stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The analysis was conducted by staff members of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), working primarily at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, in support of the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program’s (CCTP’s) strategic planning process. The conceptual framework for the analysis is a set of three broad classes of advanced technology futures, developed by PNNL for the CCTP. Each of these classes of futures qualitatively describes a set of technological developments and associated possibilities for technology deployment over the 21st century that could lead to stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The three classes differ from one another in the way that energy supply technologies are assumed to improve and be deployed over the coming century. One class envisions that cost-effective carbon capture and storage technologies are successfully developed, allowing for low-carbon use of fossil fuels. Another class envisions a transition over the century toward renewable and nuclear energy sources. A third final class envisions the development of new, breakthrough technologies such as fusion and novel biomass and solar-energy systems, leading to their deployment in the second half of the century. All the three classes also include advances in a range of technological areas relevant to climate change, including non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation technologies, technologies for sequestering carbon in terrestrial systems such as agricultural soils, and improvements in energy end-use technologies. These generic classes of futures, without specific technology assumptions, serve as a framework for interpreting past analyses and for conducting further CCTP analysis activities.

US Climate Change Technology Program. A multi-agency research and development program for the development of climate change technology.

report that, among other things, models various levels of abatement necessary to achieve various levels of GHG (450ppm, 550 ppm, etc) Title: Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of options and costs Author: Vuuren, D.P. van Elzen, M.G.J. den Lucas, Paul L. Eickhout, B. Strengers, B.J. Ruijven, B.J. van Berk, M.M. Vries, B. de Hoogwijk, Monique Maria Meinshausen, M. Wonink, S.J. Houdt, R. van den Oostenrijk, R. Year: 2006 Publisher: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Document type: External research report

Gigaton Throwdown

The Gigaton Throwdown is a project to encourage entrepreneurs, investors and policy makers to grow cleantech companies to such a scale they impact the climate.  While investment is already pouring into cleantech companies, there is little understanding of how large these companies and industries must become to stablize the climate.  Similarly, policy makers don’t have a good grasp of what is required to enable this massive scale up.  

Our goal is to make the Gigton Throwdown a standard of achievement for entrepreneurs and companies and give policy makers a roadmap for aiding their success.  An academic study currently in final stages will evaluate the capacity expansion and total investment required for 9 technology pathways to individually avoid one gigaton of CO2e per year by 2020.  Unlike other studies that try to predict the outcome of technologies decades in the future, we aim to inspire and inform companies today to grow to gigaton scale.  With the publication of the study, we will announce companies who have signed up for the “Gigaton Throwdown” – a challenge to reduce CO2e by 1 Gt/year by 2020 via their technology pathway.  We will follow launch of the Throwdown with press and awareness events in the cleantech and entrepreneurial community.

We are now summarizing the findings for publication in late March. The pathways currently in analysis are solar PV, solar thermal, wind, alcohol biofuels, nuclear, geothermal, PHEVs, buildings, and building materials.  Other pathways will be evaluated in the future.

Key Study Partners:

The Gigaton Throwdown Study was launched at Clinton Global Initiative and has partners that include:
-    Academic researchers including Dan Kammen and Catherine Wolfram
-    Over 20 graduate students and post-docs at UC Berkeley, University of Michigan, Stanford, and MIT
-    Over 20 individuals from cleantech companies and investment firms including Firelake Capital, DFJ, Virgin Green Fund, Suntech Energy Solutions, AES, Morgan-Stanley, PG&E, MissionPoint, NEA, Rockport Capital, MMA Renewable Ventures, Vantage Point, and others.
-    Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2)

How you can help:

We are looking for additional partners to:
-    Partner in distribution and promotion of the study with in-kind or financial support
-    Sign up for the Throwdown itself
-    Review the individual chapters and the final report
-    Partner for follow-on workshops and further evaluation of pathways

Contacts:
Sunil Paul is founder of the Gigaton Throwdown.  He is a cleantech investor at Spring Ventures and has a 15 year history as a successful entrepreneur.  He was also a tech policy analyst at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment for three years.  sunilpaul@springventuresllc.com 415.707.9059 (c) 415.664.6341 (o)

Claire Tomkins is manager of the Gigaton Throwdown study.  She recently completed her PhD from Stanford in Management Science&Engineering on new water pricing models.  She is author of several of the chapters in the Gigaton Throwdown study.  Claire.tomkins@gmail.com

Skip to Content About Us Press Center Publications & Reports Articles & Speeches Events Deutsch Español Français Site Search Business U.S. States & Regions U.S. Federal International Global Warming Basics Science & Impacts Technology Solutions Economics Sign up for E-Newsletter Your Email Address RSS Feed Donate Now Home Print this page Email this page Global Anthropogenic GHG Emissions by Sector Globally, the primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions are the energy supply sector (26%), industry (19%) and forestry (17%). Agriculture and transportation account for 14% and 13% of total emissions, respectively.     Back to International Facts and Figures Back to Facts and Figures Home   Contact Us Glossary Sitemap Privacy Copyright Permission

This flow chart shows the sources and activities across the global economy that produce greenhouse gas emissions. Energy use is responsible for the majority of greenhouse gases. Most activities produce greenhouse gases both directly, through on-site and transport use of fossil fuels, and indirectly from heat and electricity that comes “from the grid.”

a bunch of charts

IPCC Scoping Meeting on Renewable Energy Sources Lübeck, Germany, 20-25 January 2008 Proceedings http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/proc-renewables-lubeck.pdf

This Congress was held recently and concluded we must act quickly.

"12 March 2009

Copenhagen, Denmark: Following a successful International Scientific Congress Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions attended by more than 2,500 delegates from nearly 80 countries, preliminary messages from the findings were delivered by the Congress' Scientific Writing Team. The conclusions will be published into a full synthesis report June 2009. The conclusions were handed over to the Danish Prime Minister Mr. Anders Fogh Rasmussen today. The Danish Government will host the UN Climate Change Conference in December 2009 and will hand over the conclusions to the decision makers ahead of the Conference. 

The six preliminary key messages are:"

<deleted>

Key Message 3: Long-Term Strategy Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid "dangerous climate change" regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping points and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult. Delay in initiating effective mitigation actions increases significantly the long-term social and economic costs of both adaptation and mitigation.

On January 15, 2009, the US Climate Action Partnership (USCAP) issued the Blueprint for Legislative Action – a detailed framework for legislation to address climate change. The Blueprint represents two years of work by USCAP members building on our January 2007 Call for Action, a groundbreaking report containing principles and recommendations that urged “prompt enactment of national legislation in the United States to slow, stop and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the shortest time reasonably achievable.”

Reference Case Projections Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Reference Case Projections Tables. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table A1 World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region Table A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table A2 World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table A3 World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity Table A3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table A4 World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Market Exchange Rates Table A4. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Market Exchange Rates. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table A5 World Liquids Consumption by Region Table A5. World Liquids consumption by Region. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Table A6 World Natural Gas Consumption by Region Table A6. World Coal Consumption by Region. Need help, contact the National Energy Information%2

The International Energy Outlook 2008 (IEO2008) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2008 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Home > Forecasts & Analysis > International Energy Outlook 2008 > Report Chapters International Energy Outlook 2008   Report Chapters Highlights Preface Chapter 1. World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook Chapter 2. Liquid Fuels Chapter 3. Natural Gas Chapter 4. Coal Chapter 5. Electricity Chapter 6. Transportation Sector Energy Consumption Chapter 7. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions    

World electricity generation nearly doubles in the IEO2008 reference case from 2005 to 2030. In 2030, generation in the non-OECD countries is projected to exceed generation in the OECD countries by 46 percen

Clean energy investment moving too slow to avoid irreversible climate change Jeremy Hance mongabay.com March 04, 2009 Stalled clean energy investment due to the current recession makes severe climate change more likely, according to a new report by analysts with New Energy Finance (NEF). Presenting their findings today at the second NEF summit, the analysts suggest that investment in clean energy would need to reach $500 billion by 2020 in order for CO2 emissions to peak in 2020 and decline therefafter. The scenario under which emissions peak by 2020 is what scientific experts have suggested is necessary to avoid the risk of "irreversible" climate change.


If current models hold steady, investment in clean energy should reach $270 billion by 2015, $350 billion by 2020, and $461 billion by 2030, which is far below the investment NEF and climatologists would like to see.

To build a roadmap for the world of cleantech (technologies, finance, and entrepreneurs) to reduce greenhouse gases by 1 Gigaton per year by 2050.

Stablization wedges were part of the inspiration for this project. They are a great way to conceptualize the problem - how do you get to 1 Gigaton a year (they use Carbon, not CO2 equivalent). But the timeframes are too long - 2055(ish) and there is an explicit assumption of no radical technological change. Both assumptions fly in the face of the experience of venture capital in the last 3 decades.

From the Science magazine abstract:
S. Pacala1* and R. Socolow2* Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world's energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.

Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, 2004. » Solving the Climate Problem: Technologies for Curbing CO2 emissions R. Socolow, R. Hotinski, J. Greenblatt, S. Pacala, Environment, 2004. » Can We Bury Global Warming? R. Socolow, Scientific American, 2005. » A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check R. Socolow and S. Pacala, Scientific American, 2006.

(US, colloquial, idiomatic, intransitive) (by extension) to accomplish or produce something in a grand, respectable, or successful manner; to "represent".

gi·ga·ton –noun one billion tons. Abbreviation: GT

This is the "cover page" for the McKinsey report of Dec 2007. It includes links to the exec summary, the video presentation (a nice overview), and the full PDF report

This page is the start of an information collection on scenarios, visions, and ways of thinking about renewable energy futures. Additional references and links will be added to this page in the future, along with other developments.

by Eric Martinot, Carmen Dienst, Liu Weiliang, and Chai Qimin, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, vol. 32 (2007), pp. 205-239. Reviews and synthesizes the results of published scenarios to 2030 and 2050 for the world, Europe, and selected countries. Focuses on the future shares of renewable energy (of primary energy, electricity, heating, or transport) shown in scenarios and poilcy targets. Provides a clear and detailed explaination of the two different (and equally valid) methodologies for measuring "share of primary energy from renewables" (the "IEA Method" and the "BP Method", also called the "substitution method"). Cites 143 references (also listed and linked below). Copyright 2007 Annual Reviews. Note: article link provides complimentary one-time access for personal use. Any further/multiple distribution, publication, or commercial usage requires permission from the Annual Reviews Permissions Department (permissions@annualreviews.org).

A New Strategy to Spur Energy Innovation
By Peter Ogden, John Podesta, John Deutch
January 3, 2008

Overview from EIA split out by sectors. US only data.
Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 were 1.5 percent below the 2005 total—the first annual drop since 2001 and only the third since 1990. The total emissions reduction, from 7,181.4 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2005 to 7,075.6 MMTCO2e in 2006, was largely a result of reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. There were smaller reductions in emissions of methane (CH4) and man-made gases with high global warming potentials (high-GWP gases) (Table 1 below). U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 were 110.6 million metric tons (MMT) below their 2005 level of 6,045.0 MMT, due to favorable weather conditions; higher energy prices; a decline in the carbon intensity of electric power generation that resulted from increased use of natural gas, the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel; and greater reliance on non-fossil energy sources. Methane emissions totaled 605.1 MMTCO2e in 2006 (Figure 1 on right), down by 2.3 MMTCO2e from 2005, with decreases in emissions from energy sources, agriculture, and industrial processes. U.S. emissions of high-GWP gases, which totaled 157.6 MMTCO2e in 2006, were 3.6 MMTCO2e below the 2005 total, as the result of a drop in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions. Emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), unlike the other greenhouse gases, increased by 10.6 MMTCO2e from 2005 to a 2006 total of 378.6 MMTCO2e. The increase is attributed primarily to an%

ScienceDaily (Nov. 15, 2007) — Now for the first time, the CO2 emissions of 50,000 power plants worldwide, the globe's most concentrated source of greenhouse gases, have been compiled into a massive new data base, called CARMA--Carbon Monitoring for Action.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Generation of Electric Power in the United States July 2000

Posting of the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program.

PDF

Its time to stop Americas addiction to foreign oil. T. Boone Pickens has a plan.

Now it's clear just how much Gore wants us to shift, and how quickly. Speaking in Washington on July 17, Gore called on Americans to completely abandon electricity generated by fossil fuels within 10 years, and replace them with carbon-free renewables like solar, wind and geothermal. It is a bold plan, almost to the point of folly. But at the very least, it's one that certainly matches the scale of his rhetoric. "The survival of the United States of America as we know it is at risk," he said. "The future of human civilization is at stake."

full transcript and YouTube video

1.) Immediately freeze carbon at the existing level; then implement programs to reduce it 90% by 2050. 2.) Reduce taxes on employment and production, instead taxing pollution (especially CO2). These pollution taxes would raise the same amount of money, but make us more competitive by encouraging employment while discouraging pollution. 3.) A portion of the revenues must be earmarked for low-income and middle class people who will have a difficult time making this transition. 4.) Negotiate a strong global treaty to replace Kyoto, while working toward de facto compliance with Kyoto. Move the start date of this new treaty forward from 2012 to 2010, so the next president can to act immediately, rather than waste time trying to pass Kyoto right before it expires. We have to try to get China and India to participate in the treaty. If they don’t immediately participate, we have to move forward with the treaty regardless, trusting that they will join sooner rather than later. 5.) Impose a moratorium on construction of any new coal-fired power plant not compatible with carbon capture and sequestration. 6.) Develop an "electranet" -- a smart grid that allows individual homeowners and small businesses to create green power and sell their excess power to the utility companies at a fair price. Just as widely distributed information processing led to a large new surge of productivity, we need a law that allows widely distributed energy generation to be sold into the grid, at a rate determined not by a the utility companies, but by regulation. The goal is to create a grid that does not require huge, centralized power plants. 7.) Raise CAFE standards for cars and trucks as part of a comprehensive package. Cars and trucks are a large part of the problem, but coal and buildings must be addressed at the same time. 8.) Set a date for the ban of incandescent light bulbs that gives industry time to create alternatives. If the date is set, industry will meet this challenge. 9.) Create Connie Mae, a carbon-neutral mortgage assoc

From MIT. Information on Emerging Technologies & impact on business & society

Link to their plan ... implemented in an interesting format called a "Knol" btw

Whilst leaders in many nations discuss ambitious targets for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), there is also an intense debate underway regarding the technical and economic feasibility of different target levels, what emission reduction opportunities should be pursued, and the costs of different options for meeting the targets. To provide a quantitative basis for such discussions, McKinsey&Company, supported by ten leading global companies and organisations - The Carbon Trust, ClimateWorks, Enel, Entergy, Holcim, Honeywell, Shell, Vattenfall, Volvo, WWF - has assessed more than 200 GHG abatement opportunities across 10 major sectors and 21 world regions between now and 2030. The results comprise an in-depth evaluation of the potential, costs and investment required for each of those measures. Our analysis finds that: The potential exists to reduce GHG emissions by just enough to stay on track until 2030 to contain global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. Opportunities can be grouped into three categories of technical measures: energy efficiency, low-carbon energy supply, and terrestrial carbon. Capturing all the potential will be a major challenge: it will require change on a massive scale, strong global cross-sectoral action and commitment, and a strong policy framework. While the costs and investments seem manageable at a global level, they are likely to be challenging for individual sectors. Delays in action of even 10 years would mean missing the 2 degrees Celsius target. This report builds on our first global study published in January 2007 and subsequent national studies. It includes an updated assessment of the development of low-carbon technologies, of macro-economic trends and a more detailed understanding of abatement potential in different regions and industries. Furthermore it assesses investment and financing requirements and incorporates implementation scenarios for a more dynamic understanding of how abatement reductions could unfold.

It is possible to maintain global warming below 2°C at an overall cost of less than 1% of global GDP if swift action is taken across different sectors, a study published yesterday (26 January) by consulting firm McKinsey shows. BACKGROUND: There is strong political consensus that a switch to a low-carbon economy is required both to combat climate change and for industries to remain competitive. But the economic slowdown has prompted fresh fears that the austere financial situation could slow down development of the new technologies. In October 2006, Sir Nicholas Stern published an influential report arguing that keeping global warming under control would cost much less than dealing with the consequences of climate change. It called for an international response involving fast-developing economies such as China and incorporating emissions trading, adaptation measures and deforestation actions alongside technology cooperation (EurActiv 31/10/06). Consulting firm McKinsey first published its greenhouse gas cost abatement curve in January 2007 to contribute quantitative data to international debate on the most cost-effective technologies for reaching various CO2 emission targets.  McKinsey's new report , 'Pathways to a low-carbon economy', presents a more comprehensive global cost curve version 2.0, which provides analysis of more than 200 opportunities for reducing emissions across 10 sectors and 21 regions. MORE ON THIS TOPIC: LinksDossier:   Financing the low-carbon economy Interview:   Eizenstat: Global climate deal a ‘tall order’ for Obama News:   Mixed reactions as Parliament approves EU climate deal OTHER RELATED NEWS: EU to table options for global climate deal Brussels to launch new 'green ICT' plan Experts: Will Obama outgreen Europe? Will Obama outgreen Europe? Obama's climate goals lack ambition, says IPCC chief The consulting firm estimates that €530 billion will need to be invested across the world by 2020 to reduce emissions to 70% below "business as usual" and avoid dangerous levels of glo

EIA 2008 Annual Energy Outlook The unfortunate thing about the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlooks is that reporters tend not to understand (or at least write about) the assumptions underlying these forecasts. Most articles I've seen on this topic over the past few years tend to highlight the very low levels of growth forecast in future renewable generation capacity. As the EIA is touted as "Official Energy Statistics from the US Government" I've always been troubled by this. As in previous editions of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), the reference case assumes that current policies affecting the energy sector remain unchanged throughout the projection period. Some possible policy changes—notably, the adoption of policies to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions—could change the reference case projections significantly. In addition, the EIA AEOs have been rather...well...volatile in their predictions for renewable energy, as demonstrated by the change in the predicted annual growth rate for non-hydro renewables going back over the past 9 years of the Annual Energy Outlooks.

More detailed summary of EIA 2009 report The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a steady growth in renewable energy use, a shift toward cleaner vehicles and a rapid growth of biofuels, which will result in no growth in U.S. oil consumption through 2030.

DESIGN TO WIN. PHILANTHROPY'S ROLE IN THE ... Design to Win's synthesis of ... become cost-effective once a carbon price is adopted – a Design to Win priority. ...